The IMF published its updated World Economic Outlook, downgrading global growth projections from 3.3% to 2.8% in the face of tariff spikes and high levels of policy uncertainty. Titled “A Critical Juncture Amid Policy Shifts”, the report notes that the world economy had been on track to emerge from a challenging period post-COVID, but has been plunged into uncertainty. Growth forecasts have been revised downwards, while global headline inflation is expected to decline at a slightly slower pace than what was expected in January. It warns that scaling back international cooperation could jeopardize progress, and urges countries to “work constructively to promote a stable and predictable trade environment and to facilitate international cooperation, while addressing policy gaps and structural imbalances at home” (Chapter 1). The report also encourages policies that promote healthy aging and enhance labor force participation among older individuals and women (Chapter 2) as well as better integration of migrants and refugees in the economy (Chapter 3). Read more here: https://shorturl.at/wqvrS

• Sub-Saharan Africa Update, Africa’s Pulse reports that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is showing some resilience, despite uncertainty in the global economy and restricted fiscal space. Regional growth is expected to reach 3.5 percent in 2025 and further accelerate to 4.3 percent in 2026-2027. However, countries rich in resources and those facing fragility, conflict, and violence are growing more slowly than the rest of the region, and the region is struggling to reduce poverty and create enough good jobs for its young population. It recommends Governments focus on providing quality public services and fairly-regulated market competition. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/africa-pulse

CGD’s Karen Mathiesen and Nico Martinez publish a new Note, “The African Development Fund Replenishment and the Resource Curse of 2025” in which they discuss the difficulties in replenishment negotiations for the African Development Fund (ADF) of the AfDB. AfDB president Akinwumi Adesina has urged shareholders to support the target of $25 billion for ADF 17, up from $9 billion for ADF16, but this will be a tall order in the current donor climate. Other options are limited. The authors note four ways the ADF could help sustain lending volumes: expanding donor options, appealing to nontraditional donors, issuing debt, and doubling down on aid effectiveness. In a new podcast, Karen Mathiesen of CGD and AfriCatalyst’s Daouda Sembene interview three of the five candidates for AfDB President. Listen or read the transcript here: https://shorturl.at/pk6Rg