Myanmar’s peace process will continue to the next stages of political dialogue, advisers to the government said yesterday, even though only a minority of armed ethnic groups have agreed so far to sign what was intended to be a nationwide ceasefire accord.

Speaking to The Myanmar Times, they insisted the government would go ahead and aimed to sign the already-agreed text of a “nationwide ceasefire agreement” (NCA) with just seven armed groups who declared in Chiang Mai on September 29 that they were on board.

U Hla Maung Shwe, senior adviser to the Myanmar Peace Center, an official body that has facilitated talks with 16 armed groups for nearly two years, said the signing could take place on October 15 and that the date was expected to be set at a meeting between the government and the seven groups on October 3.

Ten other groups meeting in Chiang Mai have refused to sign for the moment, including three the government wants to exclude. Others not present, including the powerful United Wa State Army (UWSA), are staying out of the deal. Two other groups from Shan State at the Chiang Mai talks remain undecided.

“The problem now is the level of trust after more than 60 years of fighting,” U Hla Maung Shwe said.

But he defended the text of the agreement which establishes a route toward holding a political dialogue on the critical issue of federalism within 90 days of the inking of the accord. “The NCA is the first step,” he said.

Government officials did not comment on the news from Chiang Mai, which falls well short of President U Thein Sein’s proclaimed priority of finalising a nationwide deal before the November elections.

“This is not a comprehensive ceasefire, with agreed separation or cantonment of forces. It’s essentially a truce that paves the way for unconditional political talks,” U Thant Myint-U, an adviser to the president on the peace process, told The Myanmar Times.

“The first steps to peace won’t be perfect. Ideally all combatants would be fully and equally on board. And ethnic armed organisations are understandably wary of what some see as a divide-and-rule approach. But moving the process along only at the rate of the most difficult relationships will also come at considerable cost,” he said.

Of the seven who have agreed to sign so far, only the Karen National Union, which has been fighting on and off since Myanmar’s independence in 1948, has a sizeable force, claiming to muster about 5000 fighters.

“We shouldn’t get too caught up in process. Myanmar needs to find a way out of 70 years of armed conflict. The NCA can only be a first step. It’s better to take that first step now, however imperfect, and move on to the far thornier issues ahead,” U Thant Myint-U said.

The groups refusing to sign say they will not come on board until the government drops its own refusal to include in the pact three allied armed groups currently fighting in and close to the Kokang border region.

But U Min Zaw Oo, also a Myanmar Peace Center adviser, told Channel News Asia that the main reason they were holding out is that “they don’t want to give political credit” to the government. This was not a “collapse” in the process, he said.

Richard Horsey, a Myanmar-based independent analyst, commented that a partial signing with seven or eight groups in October “now appears the most likely scenario”.

“This represents some progress, potentially avoiding a scenario where the NCA text is re-opened under the next administration, and it could make it easier to move to the crucial political dialogue phase. But a partial signing also carries risks – of the NCA’s credibility being reduced, and of a damaging polarisation of ethnic politics,” he told The Myanmar Times.

“It could herald a largely peaceful southeast, and a conflict-mired northeast. A partial signing could also lead to tensions between and within armed groups. As at previous times in the country’s history, a chance to secure peace could be lost due to a lack of trust and unity,” he said.

A swath of territories bordering China from Kachin State in the north along much of Shan State to the east look set to remain areas of conflict outside the ceasefire pact.

The Kachin Independence Organisation, with an estimated 10,000 fighters, is standing by its three allies the government refuses to include – the ethnic Chinese rebels in Kokang, as well as the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

U Hla Maung Shwe hopes this impasse can be resolved. He said the government wanted first to seal a bilateral deal with the TNLA while U Thein Sein would deal directly with the Kokang rebels of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army.

Along with the enclave controlled by the UWSA and its estimated 20,000 fighters, the KIO and the Kokang insurgents have close ties inside China through border trade, much of it in illicit timber, gems, drugs and arms.

China has publically declared its support for the ceasefire process, although U Thant Myint-U and other analysts describe the role of Myanmar’s giant neighbour as “opaque”.

Ethnic leaders holding a third day of talks in Chiang Mai yesterday fretted over their inability to reach a common position, not for the first time in their history.

Naing Htaw Mon, chair of the New Mon State Party, which is refusing to sign, urged those gathered not to forget the past or to remain complacent. Despite the disagreement over the ceasefire pact, the ethnic leaders should not forget that their real agreed goal was peace and a federal union, he said.

“The seven groups need to try to get the all-inclusive agreement from the government for the other groups. And also they need to try to get guarantees on political and military issues,” he said.

Pu Zing Cung, general secretary of the Chin National Front, which has an estimated 200 combatants and has decided to sign the ceasefire, insisted that the various ethnic groups remained united. “People and some armed groups think that we are separated into two groups. It is not true. We are only separated by opinions on the NCA. We are always united,” he told The Myanmar Times.

U Aung San Myint, secretary of the Karenni National Progressive Party, with forces estimated at 600-strong and opposed to signing, bluntly disagreed. “We can say that the ethnic armed groups are separated into two groups. I think that the next meeting will be held with 10 groups. Seven will not be included at that time because they have decided to sign the NCA,” he said.