Armed ethnic groups declaring theyintend to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement on October 15 will be taken off the government’s blacklist of unlawful organisations in advance, according to an adviser to the Myanmar Peace Center.

The Unlawful Associations Act has been a key and selective tool of the government in its policy of marginalising the activities of armed ethnic organisations, through the prosecution of politicians, reporters, aid workers and others attempting to deal with the factions in areas beyond state control.

U Aung Naing Oo, director of the Peace Dialogue Program at the Myanmar Peace Center, told The Myanmar Times yesterday that the ethnic armed groups intending to sign up to the ceasefire agreement should officially make their intentions known by October 12.

“The NCA is a state-level agreement. So they need to send the name lists exactly and the government has to annul them as unlawful associations,” he said.

Just how many groups will sign on October 15 is not yet clear, although it appears unlikely the government will be able to persuade a majority to join in terms of strength of forces.

Seven groups have already declared their intention to join, although only the Karen National Union is considered a major force among them.

The Myanmar Peace Center, which has facilitated nearly two years of negotiations between the government and representatives of 16 armed groups, remains hopeful that the Restoration Council of Shan State – the political wing of the Shan State Army-South – will also sign up. The RCSS is larger than the KNU with an estimated 6000 combatants, according to the Myanmar Peace Monitor.

RCSS spokesperson Colonel Sai Hla said yesterday the group was holding a leadership meeting to make a decision and that the talks could continue for another three days. He declined to comment on what side the group might take.

With its headquarters in Loi Tai Leng in the mountains of southern Shan State, inclusion of the RCSS in the ceasefire pact would mean the significant addition of a major force, which, along with the three Kayin groups already committed to signing, controls territory bordering Thailand.

The RCSS, led by Lieutenant General Yawd Serk, reached a bilateral ceasefire deal with the government in 2011. It was not among the 16 factions negotiating the nationwide accord, but on August 17 it stated its willingness to join. However outbreaks of fighting since then in Shan State have thrown that commitment into doubt.

“Currently I heard that the RCSS is holding its central executive committee meeting. We hope they will sign the NCA with the seven groups on October 15. We and the seven groups are trying to include more groups on October 15,” U Aung Naing Oo said.

President U Thein Sein, who has made a “nationwide” ceasefire one of his government’s top priorities, said in a radio message yesterday that the government did not want to leave any ethnic armed groups out of the peace process and that it was keeping the door open for others to sign.

However, the two largest forces – the Kachin Independence Organisation and the United Wa State Army – are refusing to get on board because the government has excluded three allied groups engaged in conflict in and near the Kokang border region of Shan State.

Fighting there was continuing yesterday, according to spokespeople for two of the groups, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army of mostly ethnic Chinese rebels, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.

The formalities surrounding the October 15 signing ceremony, to be held in Nay Pyi Taw, seem to be eluding some of the groups.

Saw Kwe Htoo Win, general secretary of the KNU, said yesterday the group had not been told of the notification procedures by the government, although those intending to sign met official negotiators in Yangon on October 4.

“We already announced we will sign the NCA. But we didn’t know that we need to officially inform the government,” he said.