Overview

Population Statistics Amid Regional Hostilities Since the escalation of hostilities across the Middle East and Asia on February 28, 2026, UNHCR prioritized the systematic compilation and publication of population statistics on forcibly displaced persons throughout the region. These data are derived from multiple sources, including official statistics provided by national and regional authorities, complemented by UNHCR's border monitoring mechanisms, protection assessments, and registration information

Credibility in Refugee Protection Monitoring In the context of the current global climate, it is critical for UNHCR’s refugee protection-focused monitoring and data dissemination to remain robust and credible. This commitment strengthens the broader narrative surrounding international protection needs stemming from displacement, as well as cases involving returns under adverse conditions.

Verification and Data Integrity The means of verification and access to data vary by country for UNHCR. Despite these differences, every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of all statistical information, including rigorous and continuous triangulation of data and sources. The figures published should be regarded as estimates, and updates or amendments may occur, including retroactive corrections as new information becomes available.

1) Border crossings of Iranian Nationals to/from neighboring countries (since 28 February)

General explanation: UNHCR considers that Iranian nationals outside Iran – whether already present in or newly arriving to third countries – may have international protection needs on account of the armed hostilities in Iran or other reasons.

Türkiye: UNHCR is present at all border points with Iran and is conducting regular border monitoring. The movement of Iranian nationals into Türkiye does not necessarily indicate permanent departure from Iran, as the available data do not distinguish between those who have remained and those who have since returned. Under the visa-free regime, Iranian nationals can stay in Türkiye for up to 90 days, and many crossings may reflect routine travel, such as visits, transit to onward flights, or short precautionary trips while individuals assess the situation at home.

Armenia : Data shared by the authorities, together with border monitoring observations by UNHCR.

Pakistan: The estimated number of Iranians crossing into neighbouring countries is based on joint border monitoring conducted by UNHCR and IOM in Pakistan, and on consolidated information drawn from a range of sources, including border visits and local government sources. The estimate provides cumulative information on the nationality of incoming individuals, disaggregated by border crossing point.

Afghanistan: Known crossings of Iranian nationals from Iran to Afghanistan are reported by UNHCR, based on people approaching UNHCR.

Azerbaijan: Borders remain closed due to public health; no detailed border movement statistics are currently available for UNHCR reporting.

Iraq: No comprehensive border movement statistics are available for UNHCR reporting.

Turkmenistan: No detailed border movement statistics are currently available for UNHCR reporting.

2) Lebanese refugees (since 28 February)

Movement of Lebanese refugees into Syria has been reported s ince the start of the escalation. Data on movement into Syria is sourced from the Syrian General Authority for Ports and Customs, reinforced through regular UNHCR monitoring missions to official border crossings on the Syrian side.

3) Returnees (since 28 February)

Afghan returnees: Afghans returnees from Iran and Pakistan into Afghanistan includes people returning under adverse circumstances due to the situation in countries of asylum. Return to Afghanistan is jointly validated by UNHCR and IOM and aligned as per one UN approach agreed under the Afghanistan RC’s Office. Afghan returns is an umbrella term that includes all returns including deportations, assisted repatriation, and other returns of Afghans of all statuses such as PoR, ACC, Amayesh cardholders, head counted slip holders and undocumented, excluding passport holders. Afghan return figures are preliminary and expected to fluctuate upon validation on a weekly basis.

Syrian returnees: For Syrians returnees crossing the border from Lebanon to Syria, the number of returnees has increased particularly through the Qaa-Joussieh border crossing, most pronounced at the start of March 2026. Return dynamics vary, with a combination of pre-meditated returns, returns due to deteriorating conditions inside Lebanon, and some potentially temporary returns (including households where some family members remain in Lebanon). UNHCR relies on a triangulation of different sources to estimate returnee numbers, including entry data from the Syrian border authorities and voluntary return windows operational at each border crossing, as well as tracking and reporting through direct and partner engagement at the community level.

4) New Internally Displaced Persons (since 28 February)

Iran: The estimated figure for Temporarily relocated population in Iran is an estimate as of 30 March, from preliminary assessments conducted by the International Farda Development Activist Association (IFDAA) in coordination with the Centre for Aliens and Foreign Immigrants’ Affairs of the Ministry of Interior.

Lebanon: As of 1 April, according to the Ministry of Social Affairs (MOSA), around one million displaced people have self-registered through the Government of Lebanon’s relief platform. These figures are drawn from administrative self-registration data and continue to be refined as validation and data-cleaning efforts progress.

Afghanistan: The figure for newly displaced population due to the renewed Afghanistan-Pakistan Military Escalation is based on interagency needs assessments conducted by OCHA.

Pakistan: The figure for newly displaced population due to the renewed Afghanistan-Pakistan Military Escalation, is as per reports from local government sources in Pakistan.