Central African Republic Population At Risk Update
Central African Republic Population At Risk Update
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, 15 Feb 2016
URL: http://www.globalr2p.org/regions/central_african_republic
BACKGROUND: Civilians in the Central African Republic (CAR) remain at imminent risk of mass atrocity crimes despite the holding of the first round of presidential and legislative elections on 30 December.
The crisis in CAR began following the 24 March 2013 overthrow of President François Bozizé by the predominantly Muslim Séléka rebel alliance. Abuses by the Séléka led to the formation of predominantly Christian and animist "anti-balaka" militias. A UN peacekeeping operation (MINUSCA), French military forces and an EU military assistance mission (EUMAM-RCA) are presently deployed in the country.
The second round of Presidential elections was held on 14 February 2016. Anicet Dologuélé and Martin Touadera, both former Prime Ministers connected politically to President Bozizé, contested the run-off, which was conducted peacefully. The first round of elections was held on 30 December, also peacefully, with 72 percent of registered voters participating, according to the UN. A constitutional referendum held on 13 December was marked by violence in Bangui, the capital, resulting in at least five people killed. Factions of the ex-Séléka and anti-balaka were able to disrupt voting in several major towns, including Bossangoa, Kaga Bandoro and Birao.
The overall situation continues to be marked by insecurity and ongoing human rights violations with armed groups continuing to exercise control over the majority of the country. Attacks against civilians, humanitarian workers and peacekeepers are ongoing in western prefectures, including along the Main Supply Route, which links CAR to Cameroon. Over 200 attacks were reported against humanitarian organizations during 2015. The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), which is active in eastern and southern prefectures of CAR, has escalated attacks during January and February, which include abductions, destruction of property and the killing of civilians.
According to the International Commission of Inquiry (CAR-CoI), the anti-balaka and Séléka have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Muslim population of CAR has been systematically targeted by "anti-balaka" militias. The CAR-CoI estimated that at least 80 percent of CAR's Muslim population had been driven out of the country by December 2014, and concluded that crimes committed by the anti-balaka constitute a "policy of ethnic cleansing" against CAR's Muslims.
According to the UN, there are still approximately 36,000 Muslim civilians trapped in seven besieged communities. These enclaves have been systematically encircled by the anti-balaka, subjected to periodic attack, and cut off from regular food and medical supplies.
There are currently more than 435,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in CAR and over 465,000 refugees in neighboring countries. An estimated 2.7 million people remain in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
ANALYSIS: The risk of mass atrocity crimes continues as the second round of Presidential elections proceed on 14 February and final results are announced in March. Armed groups may continue to violently disrupt the electoral process in Bangui and the interior, putting civilians at risk.
Hostilities between anti-balaka militias, factions of the Séléka, armed Muslim self-defense groups and other armed groups, as well as between international peacekeepers and these groups, continue to pose a threat to civilians. Violence between nomadic pastoralists and settled agriculturalist communities in the transhumance corridor also continues. Some armed groups continue to illegally exploit natural resources to fund their activities.
National security forces remain unable to prevent attacks by various armed groups without the assistance of international forces. The fragmentation of the Séléka and anti-balaka will prove challenging for disarmament, demobilization and reintegration programs.
MINUSCA continues to face critical capacity gaps that impede its ability to uphold its mandate to protect civilians throughout CAR. The scaling down of French military forces presents additional operational challenges for MINUSCA.
CAR's Transitional Authorities are unable to uphold their Responsibility to Protect and require sustained international assistance.
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE: Following the deadly surge in violence during late 2013, the international community intensified its response to the crisis in CAR, including passing six UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions between October 2013 and April 2015 that emphasized the interim government's responsibility to protect the civilian population. [For response prior to March 2015, see GCR2P's Timeline of International Response to the Situation in CAR.]
On 28 April the UNSC passed Resolution 2217, which renewed MINUSCA's mandate for one year and emphasized the primary responsibility of the CAR authorities to protect populations from mass atrocity crimes.
On 11 December the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights condemned ongoing inter-communal violence in CAR and warned of the risk of another wave of targeted attacks during the electoral period.
On 22 December the UNSC imposed sanctions on two additional individuals for undermining peace and security in CAR.
On 29 December the UN Secretary-General called on all political actors in CAR to ensure that the elections were conducted in a peaceful and credible manner.
On 27 January 2016 the UNSC passed Resolution 2262, which renewed the sanctions regime, including the arms embargo, and recalled the primary responsibility of the CAR authorities to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.
On 13 February the UN Secretary-General urged all stakeholders to ensure that the elections were conducted in a peaceful and credible manner.
NECESSARY ACTION: The newly-elected President should prioritize accountability for mass atrocity crimes and other violations of international humanitarian and human rights law, including through cooperation with the International Criminal Court. Urgent financial and logistical resources are also needed to establish the Special Criminal Court for CAR.
Individuals elected who are alleged to have committed violations or abuses of human rights should not be permitted to assume positions in any new government. The UNSC should sanction individuals responsible for atrocities and other serious human rights abuses.
UN and French forces must use all necessary means to protect civilians and forcibly disarm groups that threaten populations. The mission must ensure it deploys in adequate numbers to all areas where vulnerable populations lack sufficient protection, including in areas affected the LRA.
The crisis in CAR began following the 24 March 2013 overthrow of President François Bozizé by the predominantly Muslim Séléka rebel alliance. Abuses by the Séléka led to the formation of predominantly Christian and animist "anti-balaka" militias. A UN peacekeeping operation (MINUSCA), French military forces and an EU military assistance mission (EUMAM-RCA) are presently deployed in the country.
The second round of Presidential elections was held on 14 February 2016. Anicet Dologuélé and Martin Touadera, both former Prime Ministers connected politically to President Bozizé, contested the run-off, which was conducted peacefully. The first round of elections was held on 30 December, also peacefully, with 72 percent of registered voters participating, according to the UN. A constitutional referendum held on 13 December was marked by violence in Bangui, the capital, resulting in at least five people killed. Factions of the ex-Séléka and anti-balaka were able to disrupt voting in several major towns, including Bossangoa, Kaga Bandoro and Birao.
The overall situation continues to be marked by insecurity and ongoing human rights violations with armed groups continuing to exercise control over the majority of the country. Attacks against civilians, humanitarian workers and peacekeepers are ongoing in western prefectures, including along the Main Supply Route, which links CAR to Cameroon. Over 200 attacks were reported against humanitarian organizations during 2015. The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), which is active in eastern and southern prefectures of CAR, has escalated attacks during January and February, which include abductions, destruction of property and the killing of civilians.
According to the International Commission of Inquiry (CAR-CoI), the anti-balaka and Séléka have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Muslim population of CAR has been systematically targeted by "anti-balaka" militias. The CAR-CoI estimated that at least 80 percent of CAR's Muslim population had been driven out of the country by December 2014, and concluded that crimes committed by the anti-balaka constitute a "policy of ethnic cleansing" against CAR's Muslims.
According to the UN, there are still approximately 36,000 Muslim civilians trapped in seven besieged communities. These enclaves have been systematically encircled by the anti-balaka, subjected to periodic attack, and cut off from regular food and medical supplies.
There are currently more than 435,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in CAR and over 465,000 refugees in neighboring countries. An estimated 2.7 million people remain in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
ANALYSIS: The risk of mass atrocity crimes continues as the second round of Presidential elections proceed on 14 February and final results are announced in March. Armed groups may continue to violently disrupt the electoral process in Bangui and the interior, putting civilians at risk.
Hostilities between anti-balaka militias, factions of the Séléka, armed Muslim self-defense groups and other armed groups, as well as between international peacekeepers and these groups, continue to pose a threat to civilians. Violence between nomadic pastoralists and settled agriculturalist communities in the transhumance corridor also continues. Some armed groups continue to illegally exploit natural resources to fund their activities.
National security forces remain unable to prevent attacks by various armed groups without the assistance of international forces. The fragmentation of the Séléka and anti-balaka will prove challenging for disarmament, demobilization and reintegration programs.
MINUSCA continues to face critical capacity gaps that impede its ability to uphold its mandate to protect civilians throughout CAR. The scaling down of French military forces presents additional operational challenges for MINUSCA.
CAR's Transitional Authorities are unable to uphold their Responsibility to Protect and require sustained international assistance.
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE: Following the deadly surge in violence during late 2013, the international community intensified its response to the crisis in CAR, including passing six UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions between October 2013 and April 2015 that emphasized the interim government's responsibility to protect the civilian population. [For response prior to March 2015, see GCR2P's Timeline of International Response to the Situation in CAR.]
On 28 April the UNSC passed Resolution 2217, which renewed MINUSCA's mandate for one year and emphasized the primary responsibility of the CAR authorities to protect populations from mass atrocity crimes.
On 11 December the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights condemned ongoing inter-communal violence in CAR and warned of the risk of another wave of targeted attacks during the electoral period.
On 22 December the UNSC imposed sanctions on two additional individuals for undermining peace and security in CAR.
On 29 December the UN Secretary-General called on all political actors in CAR to ensure that the elections were conducted in a peaceful and credible manner.
On 27 January 2016 the UNSC passed Resolution 2262, which renewed the sanctions regime, including the arms embargo, and recalled the primary responsibility of the CAR authorities to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.
On 13 February the UN Secretary-General urged all stakeholders to ensure that the elections were conducted in a peaceful and credible manner.
NECESSARY ACTION: The newly-elected President should prioritize accountability for mass atrocity crimes and other violations of international humanitarian and human rights law, including through cooperation with the International Criminal Court. Urgent financial and logistical resources are also needed to establish the Special Criminal Court for CAR.
Individuals elected who are alleged to have committed violations or abuses of human rights should not be permitted to assume positions in any new government. The UNSC should sanction individuals responsible for atrocities and other serious human rights abuses.
UN and French forces must use all necessary means to protect civilians and forcibly disarm groups that threaten populations. The mission must ensure it deploys in adequate numbers to all areas where vulnerable populations lack sufficient protection, including in areas affected the LRA.