Leaders of ethnic armed groups meeting in Kayin State have dealt a heavy blow to government hopes of signing at least a partial nationwide ceasefire agreement before the elections. The leaders, meeting in the Karen National Union (KNU) stronghold of Law Khee Lar, Kayin State, have decided not to sign the draft presented to them – and agreed upon by their negotiating team – in March.

The decision is also a rebuff to the international community, as representatives of both the United Nations and the Chinese foreign ministry present at the summit had urged the armed groups to sign the agreement.

However, the surprise decision at Law Khee Lar could open the way to a possible political dialogue between the government and the armed groups. With the ceasefire agreement increasingly out-of-reach, some observers expect the government will reverse its earlier ceasefire-first, discussions-later policy and launch political dialogue.

The draft ceasefire agreement put before the summit last week was signed amid great fanfare in March following protracted negotiations, subject to final agreement by the leaders of the armed groups involved. Observers noted, however, that the peace process did not include the three armed groups actively engaged in fighting the government in Kokang, northern Shan State: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA). The leaders of those groups did not participate in the June 2-7 Law Khee Lar summit either.

Despite earlier indications that the leaders of participating armed groups might sign the draft without significant alteration, their decision not to sign was apparently spurred by fears that the government was trying to split the ethnic movement by proposing a two-step ceasefire process, dealing first with the Law Khee Lar group and then launching separate peace talks with the three groups still fighting at Kokang.

Naing Han Thar, chair of the New Mon State Party, ­­­­told a press conference on June 7 that the leaders had decided not to leave the three Kokang groups out of the process. They wanted the armed groups’ negotiating umbrella organisation, the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), which he leads, to continue to deal with the government on behalf of all its members.

“We will not accept to see our brothers left behind. The nationwide ceasefire must be all-inclusive,” he told journalists as the summit concluded.

U Hla Maung Shwe, senior adviser of the Myanmar Peace Center, which has coordinated the ceasefire negotiations, told The Myanmar Times that the government negotiating team, the Union Peace-making Central Committee, had found it hard to incorporate the positions of the three Kokang groups.

“These three groups emerged only after the current government came to power, so the government had difficulty in recognising them on the same level as the others,” he said.

Khun Myint Tun, chair of the Pa-O National Liberation Organisation, said the government would have to take the Kokang groups into account in further discussions on the national ceasefire agreement because they are members of the NCCT.

“Minister U Aung Min [who is leading the government’s negotiating team] promised us in bilateral talks with our organisation that he would not leave even small conflicts out of the peace process. This is not a small problem,” he said.

The leaders attending the Law Khee Lar summit have been grappling for the past six days with more than 15 proposed amendments to the NCA draft, as well as the issue of excluding the three Kokang groups.

The NCCT will now take the amended draft back to the government for further discussions. It is not yet clear, however, that the leaders have reached full agreement on the remainder of the draft text, or on whether it can be signed before the elections.

Mahn Nyein Maung, a senior member of the KNU, said he believed the agreement should be signed before a new government takes power to ensure progress made to date is not lost. “We don’t know what the policy of the next government might be,” he said.

But Naing Han Thar of the New Mon State Party said the groups should not rush to sign the ceasefire. “We don’t care if the agreement is signed before or after the election. The important thing is to make clear what we want in the negotiations,” he said.

Vijay Nambiar, the UN special representative, had told participants in the opening meeting of the summit on June 2 that they had only a limited time to act, adding, “Myanmar’s peace is in your hands.” He advocated signing the accord before the election, prompting some ethnic leaders to accuse him of taking the government’s side.

In the wake of the summit, moves are already afoot to consider action on political dialogue.

“We’ve just talked to Naing Han Thar and [KNU joint secretary-general] Padoh Kwe Htoo Win about meeting in Chiang Mai [on June 10],” U Hla Maung Shwe of the Myanmar Peace Center told The Myanmar Times yesterday. He added that the government policy of settling the ceasefire before discussing political dialogue would “probably” change.

“The government might have decided to start the political dialogue first, but we haven’t received any instructions from the central committee yet,” he said, adding that the next meeting between the government and the NCCT could discuss the dialogue, in Yangon.

“We are now thinking about how to move forward toward the political dialogue.”

Yesterday a spokesperson for one of the three Kokang groups welcomed the Law Khee Lar decision not to sign the ceasefire agreement.

“I appreciate the decision of the conference because we’ve already said we wanted to sign the NCA, but the government opposed it,” said Mai Aike Kyaw of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.